to date you would say that favorite is obama. today you would say the democrats are likely to keep the senate. governor romney has a very narrow path, and if he wins the presidency, that means there is a wave behind him, there is some left to him, and that will bring in a couple candidates to put them all won over. >> so you understand, charlie cook has forgotten more about the senate races than i ever knew. he is the bible in this. but of the reasons people beforehand a year ago thought the republicans were so sure is 2006 was a wave election and democrats won in a lot place where you did not expect them to win. the democrats work defending 23 seats and republicans only to end. by the nature of the math, it seems likely that the republicans would pick up seats and the democrats would lose. now i think the conventional wisdom is it is less than 50-50 that the republicans will take the senate. >> talk about the house for a moment, controlled by republicans. democrats would have to pick up a lot of the seats. >> it is a long shot.